Polar Meltdown

{Note: This post is the 1st in a series of 12 where I review what Scientific American magazine has called the “12 Events That Will Change Everything”. The purpose of this series is to generate interest and discussion about science, which is the study of God’s creation. If you want a bit more background on why I’m encouraging believers to talk about science, make sure you read the post “A False Dichotomy”. If you want to learn more about the Scientific American article (and you have a high speed internet connection), you can see an interactive display at http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=interactive-12-events .}

The Event: The ice at the north and south poles will continue to melt and cause the ocean levels to rise by 1 metre (100 centimetres) by the year 2100.



The Impact: About 200 million people live on land that would be flooded if this event occurs. This includes 8 of the 10 largest cities in the world and countless small villages in the poorest countries. The type of devastation in New Orleans due to the storm surge caused by hurricane Katrina will be repeated around the world as the water levels rise and start to flood coastal areas.



The Science: Historical records show that since 1900, the oceans have risen by 17 centimetres. This is based on geological records (markings on coastal rocks showing previous water lines) as well as records from harbours and coastal resorts that show a gradual increase in the waterline (and decrease in beach area). More recently, photographs of the polar ice caps have been tracked and the area of ice has noticeably decreased in the past 50 years. Thermal images (measuring temperature) of the ice caps show a gradual temperature rise and a thinning of the ice thickness. The forecast for the continued meltdown is based on the past trends and “global warming” - the increase in the average temperature of the air and oceans.

Jac’s Analysis: I think the science is valid and the Polar Meltdown is very likely. While there has been much debate about global warming, most of the debate has been centred on the role that human activity has contributed to global warming. But from what I have reviewed, the evidence regarding the shrinking size of the polar ice caps and recent increases in the ocean level is not really disputed. The two questions that science is wrestling with is how quickly it will occur and what we can do to prevent it or accommodate it. The Netherlands may be our best hope to mitigate the rising of the oceans. About 20% of their country is already below sea level and the Dutch have become world leaders in building dikes to keep the ocean waters out. By using similar techniques, major cities can likely prevent the damage caused by the rising waters. But smaller communities and poorer countries may not have this option.

Our Reaction? Don’t panic. This won’t happen overnight and we won’t end up like Kevin Costner in the movie Waterworld searching the globe for dry land. But we should consider whether our use of fossil fuels is accelerating this problem, and try to cut back on our energy usage if only to slow it down. We might start keeping this in mind when we provide aid to countries that are in the potential flood zone. Perhaps if we are going to rebuild a coastal community that was recently devastated by a hurricane or tropical storm, we might want to encourage the new buildings to be built on higher ground.

Questions and comments? I’d like to hear your thoughts about this, or answer any questions you might have about the polar meltdown and global warming. Below are a few questions to think about.

1. What do you think about global warming? Is it real? Are we contributing to it? Do you think we can slow it down and possibly reverse it? What are you willing to do to help?
2. What about putting some conditions on providing foreign aid to coastal communities? Do we have the right to dictate where they rebuild? How do you think those residents would feel if they were forced to relocate further inland?

I look forward to seeing some comments on the blog this week. Next week we delve into something more theoretical and complicated – extra dimensions. We are all familiar with 4 dimensions: length, width, depth and time. But there are some theories that suggest there is more to this universe than meets the eye. Stay tuned.

Jac