The Event: A deadly and highly contagious virus will spread across the globe causing countless illnesses and death.
The Impact: The H1N1 (swine flu) outbreak in 2009 caused great concern across the world, but it resulted in fewer than 15,000 deaths (compared to over 200,000 per year caused by seasonal flu). Previous outbreaks of virulent flu virus strains have been much worse, such as the Asian flu in the 1950s which resulted in about 2 million deaths, and the Spanish flu in the early 1900s which resulted in over 50 million deaths.
Aside from the human illnesses and deaths, these types of outbreaks also impact our economy and our way of life. Many countries will restrict or discourage cross-border travel which impacts tourism and the import/export business. Many people will stay home more, reducing their shopping trips, vacations, dining out, or visiting friends. Unfounded fears about how H1N1 was spread caused a significant drop in the consumption pork products, which financially impacted farmers. Worker productivity also drops as people stay home when they or a family member are sick. The overall impact is reduced sales and reduced profits, which can devastate businesses that were barely breaking even.
World travel has become commonplace, so the spread of viruses across the globe happens as quickly as 24 to 48 hours. This was not the case with previous pandemics such as the Asian flu and Spanish flu, which were mostly confined to specific regions. However, our ability to prevent, detect, and contain viruses has significantly improved so we may be better off in the long run.
The Science: The flu (or more correctly influenza) is an infectious disease caused by a virus, which can affect humans, mammals (such as pigs), and birds. The symptoms vary from minor to severe, and depending on the age and overall health of the person infected, it can lead to complications such as pneumonia and death. The virus can spread by direct contact (touching someone who is sick), indirect contact (touching something such as a doorknob that an infected person has touched), or through the air (particularly after someone sneezes).
One of the challenges of influenza is its ability to adapt. The DNA can change enough so that it can jump between species (such from birds to humans) or it can become immune to known vaccinations (which is why the flu shot you get each year is slightly different – it targets the most current, prevalent strain). As each new strain appears, science begins a race with the disease - rushing to create a vaccine in time to prevent the disease from spreading.
One of the fears is that a strain will mutate so much we will be unable to create a vaccine for it, or it will spread so fast we can’t slow down the spread of it and most people will become infected. While the survival rate tends to be high (fewer than 1 in 10,000 infections results in death), most people experience symptoms severe enough to not be able to work or attend school for a few days.
Most regions of the world (including Canada) have mandated that critical providers (medical, governments, police, schools, banks, utilities, etc) prepare “pandemic plans” so they can continue to function and offer essential services even if their workforce has up to 2/3 of their workers off sick. These are normally staged plans with the initial phase trying to minimize worker exposure to sick people and the final phase ensuring enough healthy workers are available to keep things working properly (such maintaining safe drinking water and electricity).
When news of a potential pandemic breaks, most municipalities encourage people to prepare “survival kits” which contain enough drinking water, non-perishable food, prescription medications, flashlights, and a battery operated radio so they and their family can last at least three days without the need to leave their homes.
Jac’s Analysis: Most of the Hollywood movies about deadly pandemics centre around either some alien virus (see The Andromeda Strain) or about a man-made pathogen created deliberately or by accident (see I Am Legend or Mission Impossible 2). In real life, we had a bit of scare with “swine flu” in 2009 which was a good wake-up call reminding us that this doesn’t just happen in the movies. Thankfully, the outbreak in 2009 was not as bad as feared, but maybe next time it will be worse.
God has programmed life – all of life including viruses – to adapt to their surroundings so they can continue living. These adaptations are passed down to subsequent generations so they have a better chance surviving. Most of the time, this is a good thing. Rabbits living in colder climates developed white fur to allow them to be less visible in the snow. Rabbits living in arid climates have brown fur so they can hide in brush. But micro-organisms reproduce very quickly so their adaptations appear much sooner and a vaccine that worked last year might not have any effect this year.
Our Reaction? This event in some form is very likely. It has happened in the past and will likely happen sometime in the future. Fortunately, the world is so connected that an outbreak anywhere in the world becomes global news immediately, giving us time to prepare. We also have a better understanding of how viruses are spread so we can take precautions (frequent hand washing, staying home if we are sick, getting an annual flu shot). We can also create vaccines very quickly (compared to 50 years ago) and get them distributed to the most vulnerable in a fairly orderly fashion (the 2009 vaccination wasn’t perfect but most people who wanted the vaccine were able to get it). Overall, I don’t worry too much about a global pandemic killing off most of the people, but I do take some basic precautions and keep up date on news stories about outbreaks.
Questions and comments?
- Do you get an annual flu shot? If not, why not?
- Are you prepared to spend 72 hours (3 days) or longer at home if there is an outbreak?
This post concludes the series on the “12 Events That Will Change Everything”. Hopefully you have learned a few things about science along the way, and how we can incorporate science into our understanding of our great God. I’m always looking for topics for future posts so if there is something you would like me to cover, just let me know.
Jac
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